CLIVAR/PAGES/IPCC Workshop
“A multi-millennia perspective on drought and implications for the future"
November 18-21, 2003
Tucson, AZ
Agenda:		Version 4
DAY ONE - November 18 (Tuesday)
8:00	9:00	Registration/Continental Breakfast
9:00	9:15	Workshop Overview and Objectives (Overpeck)[Prst]
9:15	9:25	Logistics, etc. (Carochi)
9:25	9:50	Conceptual framework, goals, overview: CLIVAR (Trenberth) [Prst]
9:50	10:10	Conceptual framework, goals, overview: PAGES (Overpeck) [Prst]
10:10	10:30	IPCC (Solomon)
10:30	11:00	Coffee Break
11:00	11:20	Contemporary Trends in Drought on the North American Continent (T. Karl) [Abst][Prst]
11:20	11:40	Global Variations in Droughts and Wet Spells in the 20th Century (A. Dai) [Abst][Prst]
11:40	12:00	The NAME (North American Monsoon Experiment) Research Program (D. Gochis) [Abst][Prst]
12:00	12:20	The Paleo-climate Record of Mountain Glaciers in Equatorial Africa (R. Odingo) [Abst][Prst]
12:20	13:30	Lunch
13:30	13:50	North African instrumental observations (S. Nicholson)
13:50	14:35	Panel 1: Instrumental Record of Drought [Abst] (Chair, S. Sorooshian)
			H. Diaz [Abst]
			J. Wei (Drought in Northern China) [Abst] [Prst]
			D. Cayan (Drought in the Sierra Nevada and Western US) [Prst]
			A. Allali (Drought Impacts in Morroco) [Abst]
14:35	14:50	Discussion of Instrumental Perspectives
14:50	15:10	North American Drought Atlas (C. Woodhouse) [Abst][Prst]
15:10	15:30	SW United States drought: tree-ring perspectives (M. Hughes) [Abst][Prst]
15:30	16:00	Coffee Break
16:00	16:20	16th Century Megadrought: Convergence and Propagation of Decadal Drought Modes
		Over North America? (D. Stahle) [Abst][Prst]
16:20	16:40	Lancustrine Perspectives on Late-Holocene Drought in the North American
		Continental Interior (S. Fritz) [Abst][Prst]
16:40	17:00	Deciphering Eolian Sand Depositional Records from the Western Great Plains in the
		Past 2000 years: Landscape Response to Extreme Drought (S. Forman) [Abst][Prst]
17:00	17:20	Paleoperspectives - Drought in North Africa ( H. Lamb) [Abst]
1800	2200	Reception at hotel (cash bar)
DAY TWO - November 19 (Wednesday)
8:00	8:30	Continental Breakfast
8:30	9:50	Panel 2: Paleoclimate Record of North American Drought (Chair, G.MacDonald)
			J. Betancourt - AMO, PDO and Severe Droughts in the Conterminous US:
				a Southwestern Perspective [Abst][Prst]
			J. Cole -  ENSO-US Drought relationships [Prst]
			D. Meko - Multi-Basin Hydrologic Drought [Abst][Prst]
			D. Hodell - Drought and the Collapse of the Classic Maya Civilization [Abst][Prst]
			B. Cumming - Large-Scale Shifts in Moisture in Regimes in Central and
				Western Canada Inferred from Lake Sediment Records [Abst]
			G. MacDonald - Canadian/California Drought [Prst]
			S. St. George - Tree Ring and Eolian Evidence for Hydroclimatic
			Variability in Western Canada During the Last Several Centuries [Abst][Prst]
9:50	10:05	Discussion of North American perspectives
10:05	10:25	Floods, Paleofloods, and Drought: Insights from the Upper Tails (K. Hirschboeck) [Abst][Prst]
10:25	10:55	Coffee Break
10:55	11:55	Panel 3: Paleoclimate Record of other Drought (Chair, J. Overpeck)
			T. Johnson - East African Drought [Abst][Prst]
			J. Overpeck - A new perspective on hydrologic change in West Africa over
			the last 800 years [Abst][Prst]
			G. Pant - Drought in India [Prst]
			D. Zhang - Drought Change and Severe Events in the Past Years of China [Abst][Prst]
11:55	12:30	Discussion of Paleoperspectives
12:30	13:50	Lunch
13:50	14:10	Mechanisms for Land Surface Feedback on Drought (R. Dickinson) [Abst][Prst]
14:10	14:30	Drought Occurrences in West Africa: Role of Vegetation Dynamics (G. Wang) [Abst][Prst]
14:30	14:50	Mechanisms and Teleconnections of Drought in the Great Plains (S. Schubert) [Abst][Prst]
14:50	15:10	Mechanisms and teleconnections (D. Battisti) [Prst]
15:10	15:30	20th Century African and Mediterranean Drying: Regional Responses to Greenhouse
		Gas Forcing (M. Hoerling) [Abst]
15:30	15:40	Discussion
15:40	16:10	Coffee Break
16:10	16:30	Interannual to interdecadal variability of Sahel rainfall in the NSIPP1 AGCM (A. Giannini) [Abst][Prst]
16:30	16:50	Long-term Droughts in the North American and South Asian Regions in a 1000-year
Global Coupled Model Simulation (G. Meehl) [Abst][Prst]
16:50	17:10	Characteristics of Exceptional Drought Events From a 10,000-year Climatic
		Simulation (B. Hunt) [Abst]
17:10	17:30	Continental Summer Dryness in the New GFDL Climate Model (T. Delworth) [Abst][Prst]
17:30	17:45	Discussion
DAY THREE - November 20 (Thursday)
8:00	8:30	Continental Breakfast
8:30	8:50	Paleomodeling of Drought in Northern Africa ( B. Otto-Bliesner) [Abst]						[Prst]
8:50	9:10	Paleomodeling (C. Amman)
9:10	9:30	Characterization of Drought in Past and Future Climate (D. Rind) [Abst]
9:30	10:15	Panel 4: Modeling and Paleomodeling (Chair: K. Trenberth)
			B. Oglesby
			R. Seager (Tropical Modulation of Mid-Latitude Eddies and the Causes
				of Extratropical Precipitation Variability) [Abst]
			K. Cook	(Modeling and Paleomodeling) [Abst]
			X. Zeng (The Role of Land in Drought) [Abst][Prst]
10:15	10:45	Coffee Break
10:45	11:20	Panel 4 Follow-up Discussion
11:20	12:10	Establishment of Breakout Groups
12:10	13:30	Lunch
13:30	17:30	Breakout Groups Meet
		Group #1  Connie Woodhouse & Brad Garanganga/co-leaders, Brian Cumming/rapporteur
		Group #2  Kerry Cook & Thomas Delworth/co-leaders, Dave Gochis/rapporteur
		Group #3   Mark Cane & G.B. Pant/co-leaders, Julia Cole/rapporteur
DAY FOUR - November 21 (Friday)
8:00	8:30	Continental Breakfast
8:30	8:40	Plenary Overview
8:40	9:00	Breakout Group 1 Report [Prst]
9:00	9:20	Breakout Group 2 Report [Prst]
9:20	9:40	Breakout Group 3 Report [Prst]
9:40	10:30	Discussion
10:30	11:00	Coffee Break
11:00	12:00	Discussion, Report Planning and Wrap-Up
12:00		Press Conference
Each group of plenary and panel speakers should coordinate before the workshop to make
sure their talks are complementary
Each Panel has a chair who may or may not speak, their choice (and depend on whether
they spoke before), plus several members who speak for up to 7 minutes each.  Exchanges are
encouraged with the audience who can get up and use, say, one overhead.